Ever since the ‘Judgement of Paris’ rocked fine wine when an upstart Napa Cabernet beat the aristocrats of Bordeaux in 1976 - California has gone from strength to strength.
A handful of West Coast superstars now rub shoulders with the ‘greats’ of the Old-World.
No one epitomises this meteoric rise more than Screaming Eagle. Along with Harlan Estate, this property now occupies ‘must own’ status for all serious collectors.
Today we focus on quite possibly Screaming Eagle’s greatest ever vintage, the triple 100 points 2016. This also has a decent claim to being the best American wine ever made.
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Only 100 Point Scores – All three major critics (who rate this wine) give it a clean 100 points (Wine Advocate, Vinous (Antonio Galloni) and James Suckling). This is the only wine in our database - with 3 scores or more - which has an average score of 100 points.
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Critics running out of superlatives - Galloni: “in a word: magnificent!”, Lisa Perrotti-Brown “epic length and depth”, Suckling: “so beautiful”.
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Kroenke Stewardship – Owned by the billionaire Kroenke family, Screaming Eagle has clear aspirations to become one of (if not the) most valuable wine in the world.
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Miniscule Production – A production run of a mere 400 - 500 cases makes this one of the world’s rarest and most exclusive wines. It is difficult to buy, and neigh on impossible to visit.
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Supply Reductions – Napa Valley faces serious climatic challenges, including drought and forest fires (like those of 2017 & 2020). Future supply of ‘pristine’ vintages like 2016 is by no means certain, and yields look likely to remain under huge pressure.
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Excellent Price Performance – Especially from the 100-point wines, with a clear ambition from billionaire owner Stan Kroenke to increase the value further.
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Still Cheap Versus Global Icons – Despite being the fourth most expensive wine in the world (on some measures), Screaming Eagle is still price well below the ‘market leaders’ at the top of fine wine (DRC, Pétrus etc.).
Screaming Eagle – Highest Rated Winery in the World?
Screaming Eagle has strong claim to being the highest-rated winery in the world.
Since its debut vintage in 1992, Wine Advocate has rated 22 vintages of Screaming Eagle (up to the 2018) and has scored no less than seven of them a perfect 100 points. That is a ‘perfection’ rate of 31.8%, the highest in our database of established producers. Harlan Estate, with nine perfect vintages out of 29 does come close, but its ‘perfect’ percentage is just a little lower.
Why is Screaming Eagle Exceptional?
Screaming Eagle is located in the renowned Oakville AVA appellation and extends only 57 acres. This is small relative to comparable Bordeaux estates (Lafite Rothschild is 277 acres).
The winery is one of the most secretive in the world. Almost no one is allowed to visit (including many famous critics). The website doesn’t even mention the flagship wine.
The estate itself sits on a fault line and contains a complex array of soils (from clay to volcanic rocks and alluvial gravels).
With the Mayacamas mountains sheltering to the west and the Vaca Range buffering the east, the vineyard enjoys a more moderate climate than surrounding areas.
The warm days coupled with cool nights allow for an extended ripening period, fostering the development of deep, complex flavors and structured tannins in the grapes.
When it comes to grape selection, Screaming Eagle is meticulous. All vineyard operations, from pruning to harvesting, are carried out manually, allowing for precise management of each vine. The winemaking team led (since 2010) by Nick Gislason is famously selective during the harvest, handpicking only the most exceptional fruit. This rigorous selection process contributes to the winery's low production volumes and ensures that only top-tier Cabernet Sauvignon, exhibiting perfect ripeness and balance, makes it into the final blend.
During an interview in 2012, Gislason suggested that the waiting time to make the mailing list to receive a direct allocation of Screaming Eagle was around 12 years. Following Screaming Eagle’s exceptional run over the last decade, it is safe to assume that the waiting list is far longer today.
Why is 2016 the ‘Greatest Ever’ Screaming Eagle Vintage?
We pick the 2016 vintage as potentially the greatest ever Screaming Eagle (and maybe the best American wine ever) for three main reasons:
1. It is the only Screaming Eagle with three 100-point scores.
2. It comes from arguably the best ever Napa Cabernet vintage (2016).
3. Screaming Eagle is the highest-ranking American winery in the Liv-ex Power 100 list (ranked 29th in the world overall).
i) Triple 100 Points Score
The combination of three 100-point scores from Wine Advocate, Vinous and James Suckling makes the 2016 vintage unique.
ii) Joint Best Ever Napa Vintage (2016)
The 2016 Napa Valley vintage is rated ‘Extraordinary’ and scored 98 points by Wine Advocate. Only the 2013 vintage matches this vintage score (although in that vintage Screaming Eagle achieved ‘only’ 97+ points).
iii) Highest Rated / Most Expensive American Winery
In the most recent Liv-ex Power 100 rankings, Screaming Eagle was the highest rated American winery, coming 29th overall.
Screaming Eagle’s incredible demand profile shows clearly when we look at price. Liv-ex ranks all wine fine wine producers based on their average trade value on the Liv-ex exchange. Screaming Eagle comes in at 4th place of all wineries in the world:
Screaming Eagle 2016 – Best Price to Quality Ratio
Of course, Screaming Eagle is very expensive compared to most other wines.
But what is important is relative price, adjusted for quality. We have a proprietary tool (free on our platform) which does this analysis. It shows that Screaming Eagle 2016 is actually significantly undervalued for its quality:
Our model suggests a fair value for Screaming Eagle 2016 of £10,470 per 3 (IB), which is +14.4% above the current price of £9,150
Dazzling Performance under Kroenke Ownership
Over the last decade, Screaming Eagle has enjoyed stellar performance on the secondary market. The 100-point wines, especially, have risen dramatically in price.
The Screaming Eagle 2010 was, according to Liv-ex.com, trading at £3,765 per cs (3) in February 2013. Today its market price is £10,200, as rise of 171%, or a compound annual growth rate of 10.48% over 10 years, a truly remarkable performance.
Screaming Eagle is owned by billionaire Stan Kroenke and family (net worth US$ 12.9 billion according to Forbes), who acquired the estate in 2006. Kroenke owns the LA Rams and the UK’s Arsenal football club also.
Kroenke’s stewardship has remained faithful to the legacy of the estate, upholding its commitment to excellence and eschewing glitzy promotions (celebrity endorsements, NFTs etc.). However, there is a clear ambition for Screaming Eagle to be fashioned into one of the very best wines in the world, with a price tag to match - and that is a favourable wind to sail behind as a collector.
Screaming Eagle – Plenty of Upside Headroom
Although Screaming Eagle has achieved an impressive price point, it has plenty of headroom above it, especially given its minute production.
Its market price still lags well behind other global icons with similar critical acclaim:
Climatic Challenges Mount in Napa Valley – Future Production Uncertain
Forest fires are becoming a recurring theme in Napa Valley. 2017 saw devastating fires after a 6-year drought. These were followed by ferocious fires in 2020. As a result, 2017 saw many wineries, Screaming Eagle included, not produce any significant quantity of wine. In 2020 some wines were produced, but not universally across the Valley. Screaming Eagle 2020 scored an uncharacteristically low 96 points from Vinous.
Napa producers are implementing state-of-the-art firefighting techniques and vineyard management practices to safeguard their vines. But crop destruction and smoke taint are likely to be ongoing concerns.
Similarly, rising temperatures and drought conditions are also making the job of Napa wine-makers harder every year. It isn’t possible simply to harvest grapes earlier, because the ‘hang time’ of the grapes on the vine is critical to their development of the complex compounds which are necessary for truly extraordinary wines.
The twin challenges of fire and drought call into question the sustainability of future yields and / or production at all. Regular readers of our research will recall the eye-watering price performance of the so-called ‘silent’ distilleries of Scotland. The remaining bottles of distilleries which closed long ago are, by definition, vanishingly scarce, and in a world of rampant money printing their value has literally no cap.
All of the above factors are potentially highly supportive of prices of wines produced under previously optimal conditions (like 2016).
And of course there is nothing to fear to wines like Screaming Eagle 2016 which are safely in the bottle (and often now far from California. The 2016 vintage will drink optimally, according to Lisa Perrotti-Brown (then) of Wine Advocate until 2065!
